Overheated Economy发表评论(0)编辑词条

What Does Overheated Economy Mean?
When a prolonged period of good economic growth and activity causes high levels of inflation (from increased consumer wealth) and inefficient supply allocations as producers overproduce and create excess production capacity in an attempt to capitalize on the high levels of wealth. Unfortunately, these inefficiencies and inflation will eventually hinder the economy's growth and cause a recession.  Explains on Overheated Economy
Rising rates of inflation are typically one of the first signs that an economy is overheating. As a result, governments and central banks will usually raise interest rates in an attempt to lower the amount of spending and borrowing.

Between June 2004 and June 2006, the Federal Reserve Board increased the interest rate 17 times as a gradual means of slowing America's overheated economy.

Overheating of an economy occurs when its productive capacity is unable to keep pace with growing aggregate demand. It is generally characterised by an above-trend rate of economic growth, where growth is occurring at an unsustainable rate. Boom periods are often characterised by overheating in the economy.

Causes
High levels of aggregate demand tend to be the cause of overheating. If aggregate demand exceeds aggregate supply, then the excess demand for goods must be met via the over-employment of resources. This may be achieved by employing workers for extra shifts or using machinery beyond their recommended working hours. This type of production is considered unsustainable because the over-employment cannot be supported indefinitely.

Effects
Overheating is generally preceded by lower than average economic growth. Demand pull inflation occurs as suppliers try to capitalize on the excess demand which cannot be met via existing production constraints. These higher prices tend to reduce aggregate demand and exports (since goods and services become relatively more expensive abroad) leading to reduced consumption. Central banks often simultaneously tighten monetary policy in response to increased inflationary pressures, reducing investment expenditure, which in tandem with decreased consumption, can lead to economic recession.

什么是经济过热
当经历了长时期的良好的经济增长及经济活动后,消费者增加的财富所带来的高通货膨胀水平和过度的无效投资造成生产能力过剩，最终阻碍经济的增长，并导致经济衰退。不断上升的通货膨胀率通常是经济发展过热的第一个迹象。因此，各国政府和中央银行通常会提高利率，以试图降低金融开支和借贷。

经济过热发生时，其生产能力无法跟上日益增长的总需求。这是普遍的特点是一个不可持续的高比率的经济增长速度。经济处于景气时期往往是经济过热的特色。

经济过热的原因
过高的社会总需求，往往是导致经济过热的原因。如果社会总需求超过总供给，则对商品超出的需求必须通过资源的过度消耗来得到满足,比如通过就业职工额外轮班或超出推荐工作时间地使用机器的方式来实现。这种类型的生产被认为是不可持续的，因为过度的消耗是不能持续下去。

经济过热的具体判断
固定资产投资增长速度连续几年明显快于GDP的增长，是经济过热在一个方面的重要反映。
能源原材料供应紧张，价格上升太快。
产能过剩、产品积压。在现有的投资增长中，许多投资停留在中间环节，有的项目选得不好，没有形成生产能力，也有的形成了生产能力，但开工不足，产能过剩。这些反映在经济增长速度上，虽然GDP、企业利润、财政税收、就业等都有了，但缺少最终需求支撑，产生了很大浪费。
资源环境压力增大，安全生产事故时有发生。经济增长所带来的资源消耗高、浪费大问题，加剧了环境保护的压力，也是经济过热在一个方面的重要表现。
经济过热的影响
需求拉动通货膨胀发生，因为供应商会利用过剩的需求得不到满足而提高价格。这些较高的价格会导致社会总需求和出口（因为商品和服务变得相对国外昂贵）的减少，从而导致减少消费。中央银行通常是同时收紧货币政策，为响应增加通货膨胀的压力，减少投资支出，其中随减少消费，导致经济衰退。